“One of our premises is that we can learn from past social and technological evolution and its impact on the forests”
By Maria Bolevich
Dr. Iddo K. Wernick has worked on measuring and analyzing how technology systems influence societal resource consumption and the natural environment. An applied physicist by training, Dr. Wernick has presented work on national resource consumption to governments and universities all around the world, he continues to conduct research at the Program for the Human Environment at Rockefeller University. He is the leading author of the study “Storing carbon or growing forests” published in the journal Land Use Policy. “One of our premises is that we can learn from past social and technological evolution and its impact on the forests. Recognizing that natural forests do not have to respond to policy diktats, we argue for policies that encourage healthy forest evolution and look beyond the forest strictly in terms of carbon storage.” says Wernick. As he explains the most interesting part of the study is the focus on market incentives. “What happens in the case of carbon offsets is that the desire to measure environmental progress (for instance the tons added to terrestrial carbon storage) is met with a market that confers monetary value on that storage and create incentives to increase that value. The increase in that value however may or may not actually translate to a similar increase in the tons added to terrestrial carbon storage. The offsets movement relies on a philosophy that holds that injecting economic incentives that favor the environment will ensure the most effective and lasting environmental protection. It is the nature of the incentives themselves that are in question here, not the additionality or other problems involved in their operation.” he adds.
The Deepness: “Forest managers across biomes can help create more resilient forests by selecting suitable tree species for a site, raising the success rate of tree planting, improving tree genotype, trying to anticipate local impacts of a changing climate, and supplying growth limiting factors.” What might be the biggest challenge in that case?
Dr.Iddo K. Wernick: To my mind the challenge is governance, for countries around the world to develop and maintain the resources and the administrative structure to monitor, let alone intervene, in the forests under their jurisdiction. This a pre-requisite for implementing such a program and something that is absent in many countries in the world.
The Deepness: “Over time, continued advances in forest science will provide knowledge to help establish more adaptive forest ecosystems in the future that can grow and recycle themselves.” How that is going to look like, and is there a deadline?
Dr. Iddo. K. Wernick: (The deadline is today). The policy community needs to wean itself away from its obsession with climate and consider other factors, such as how competent management of existing forests and new afforestation projects can increase their likelihood of integrating into and enhancing the living, breathing global forests of the future.
The Deepness: “It is uncertain how long such a strong expansion of forest resources in Europe can continue given the future risks of pest damage, wildfire, storms and other natural drivers of forest die-back” why?
Dr. Iddo K. Wernick: As volumes grow larger and European forests grow denser over time, they become an attractive habitat for pests and they can also become susceptible to fire if arid conditions prevail and levels of tree mortality are allowed to rise. One thing I regret not stating more explicitly in the paper is that Carbon Offsets also serve to create incentives for leaving forests alone without removing trees that eventually die or burn if not removed. Sometimes the forest burns anyway even if they serve as the asset lying behind a carbon offset. No one tells the trees that they cannot burn and emit all of their carbon because they serve as offsets for traveling urban professionals and some of the largest corporations in the world.
The Deepness: “Despite worthy intentions, implementing policies that treat the forest this way creates incentives for planting vast areas with species that may after several decades turn out to be poorly suited to local environments and of limited benefit globally.” What is the solution?
Dr. Iddo K. Wernick: Maybe we cannot determine an ideal outcome using any specific policy, but we can remove perverse incentives that end up serving very short-term interests. Placing climate change in context and recognizing the importance of local factors would improve the situation. The solution may not result from carbon markets. There is a temptation to quantify progress, and the movement to financialize the carbon in forests relies on quantification at multiple points. I’m afraid that I think that the drive to quantification is itself largely responsible for the ultimate misallocation of resources.
The Deepness: “In developing countries, the rush to store carbon in forests typically tramples on local property rights and ignores the sources of livelihood dislocated by ‘climate-friendly’. In developed countries, polices to maximize the carbon stock in the forest may fail to properly account for the increasing encroachment of human populations into forest that are vulnerable to fire.” Can you explain this?
Dr. Iddo K. Wernick: The point here is to appreciate the local context in forests around the world. The failure to appreciate the local context can adversely affect populations living in or near forests now and in the future. Solution here points to more local administration without sole reliance on climate related funding. Quality governance is required to exercise local administrative control, not always a given.
The Deepness: “Achieving the right balance in global forest policy will allow future generations to better coexist with, and within, the planet’s climate.” The most important step in that process?
Dr. Iddo K. Wernick: The policy community needs to wean itself away from obsession with climate and consider other factors. Perhaps mainly to consider how competent management of existing forests and giving careful thought to afforestation projects can increase their likelihood of integrating into and enhancing the living, breathing global fo
